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Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models

机译:sIR流行病模型中的时间最优控制策略

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摘要

We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different controlpolicies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission.Applying the Pontryagin's Minimum Principle (PMP) to the unconstrained controlproblems (i.e. without costs of control or resource limitations), we provethat, for all the policies investigated, only bang-bang controls with at mostone switch are admitted. When a switch occurs, the optimal strategy is to delaythe control action some amount of time and then apply the control at themaximum rate for the remainder of the outbreak. This result is in contrast withprevious findings on the unconstrained problems of minimizing the totalinfectious burden over an outbreak, where the optimal strategy is to use themaximal control for the entire epidemic. Then, the critical consequence of ourresults is that, in a wide range of epidemiological circumstances, it may beimpossible to minimize the total infectious burden while minimizing theepidemic duration, and vice versa. Moreover, numerical simulations highlightedadditional unexpected results, showing that the optimal control can be delayedalso when the control reproduction number is lower than one and that theswitching time from no control to maximum control can even occur after the peakof infection has been reached. Our results are especially important forlivestock diseases where the minimization of outbreaks duration is a prioritydue to sanitary restrictions imposed to farms during ongoing epidemics, such asanimal movements and export bans.
机译:我们研究了SIR(敏感感染-恢复)流行病模型中的时间最优控制问题,重点研究了不同的控制策略:疫苗接种,隔离,剔除和传播减少。将Pontryagin的最小原理(PMP)应用于不受约束的控制问题(即没有控制成本或资源限制的情况),我们证明,对于所有调查的政策,只有具有最多切换功能的爆炸控制才被接受。发生切换时,最佳策略是将控制操作延迟一段时间,然后在爆发的其余时间以最大速率应用控制。该结果与以前关于在爆发中将总感染负担降至最低的无约束问题的发现相反,在最优问题上,最佳策略是对整个流行病使用最大控制。那么,我们的结果的关键后果是,在广泛的流行病学情况下,可能无法将总传染病负担减至最小,而将流行持续时间减至最短,反之亦然。此外,数值模拟突出显示了额外的意外结果,表明当控制复制数小于1时,最佳控制也可能被延迟,甚至在达到感染高峰后,甚至可能发生从无控制到最大控制的切换时间。我们的结果对于畜牧疾病尤其重要,在这种疾病中,由于持续不断的流行(例如动物活动和出口禁令)对农场实施卫生限制,因此将暴发持续时间减至最短是优先考虑的问题。

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